Abstract: Accurate spatial distribution information on gross domestic product (GDP) is of great importance for the analysis of economic development, industrial distribution and urbanization processes. Traditional administrative unit-based GDP statistics cannot depict the detailed spatial differences in GDP within each administrative unit. This paper presents a study of GDP spatialization in Ningbo City, China based on National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP)/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night-time light (NTL) data and town-level GDP statistical data. The Landsat image, land cover, road network and topographic data were also employed as auxiliary data to derive independent variables for GDP modelling. Multivariate linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) regression were used to estimate GDP at the town scale and were assessed by cross-validation. The results show that the RF model achieved significantly higher accuracy, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 109.46 million China Yuan (CNY)·km-2 and a determinate coefficient (R2=0.77) than the MLR model (MAE=161.8 million CNY·km-2, R2=0.59). Meanwhile, by comparing with the estimated GDP data at the county level, the town-level estimated data showed a better performance in mapping GDP distribution (MAE decreased from 115.1 million CNY·km-2 to 74.8 million CNY·km-2). Among all of the independent variables, NTL, land surface temperature (Ts) and plot ratio (PR) showed higher impacts on the GDP estimation accuracy than the other variables. The GDP density map generated by the RF model depicted the detailed spatial distribution of the economy in Ningbo City. By interpreting the spatial distribution of the GDP, we found that the GDP of Ningbo was high in the northeast and low in the southwest and formed continuous clusters in the north. In addition, the GDP of Ningbo also gradually decreased from the urban centre to its surrounding areas. The produced GDP map provides a good reference for the future urban planning and socio-economic development strategies.

Abstract: Urbanization process involving increased population size, spatially extended land cover and intensified economic activity plays a substantial role in anthropogenic environment changes. Remotely sensed nighttime lights datasets derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) provide a consistent measure for characterizing trends in urban sprawl over time (Sutton, 2003). The utility of DMSP/OLS imagery for monitoring dynamics in human settlement and economic activity at regional to global scales has been widely verified in previous studies through statistical correlations between nighttime light brightness and demographic and economic variables ( and ). The quantitative relationship between long-term nighttime light signals and urbanization variables, required for extensive application of DMSP/OLS data for estimating and projecting the trajectory of urban development, however, are not well addressed for individual cities at a local scale. We here present analysis results concerning quantitative responses of stable nighttime lights derived from time series of DMSP/OLS imagery to changes in urbanization variables during 1994–2009 for more than 200 prefectural-level cities and municipalities in China. To identify the best-fitting model for nighttime lights-based measurement of urbanization processes with different development patterns, we comparatively use three regression models: linear, power-law and exponential functions to quantify the long-term relationships between nighttime weighted light area and four urbanization variables: population, gross domestic product (GDP), built-up area and electric power consumption. Our results suggest that nighttime light brightness could be an explanatory indicator for estimating urbanization dynamics at the city level. Various quantitative relationships between urban nighttime lights and urbanization variables may indicate diverse responses of DMSP/OLS nighttime light signals to anthropogenic dynamics in urbanization process in terms of demographic and economic variables. At the city level, growth in weighted lit area may take either a linear, concave (exponential) or convex (power law) form responsive to expanding human population and economic activities during urbanization. Therefore, in practice, quantitative models for using DMSP/OLS data to estimate urbanization dynamics should vary with different patterns of urban development, particularly for cities experiencing rapid urban growth at a local scale.

Abstract: Spatial distribution information on population density is essential for understanding urban dynamics. In recent decades, remote sensing techniques have often been applied to assess population density, particularly night-time light data (NTL). However, such attempts have resulted in mapped population density at coarse/medium resolution, which often limits the applicability of such data for fine-scale territorial planning. The improved quality and availability of multi-source remote sensing imagery and location-based service data (LBS) (from mobile networks or social media) offers new potential for providing more accurate population information at the micro-scale level. In this paper, we developed a fine-scale population distribution mapping approach by combining the functional zones (FZ) mapped with high-resolution satellite images, NTL data, and LBS data. Considering the possible variations in the relationship between population distribution and nightlight brightness in functional zones, we tested and found spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between NTL and the population density of LBS samples. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) was thus implemented to test potential improvements to the mapping accuracy. The performance of the following four models was evaluated: only ordinary least squares regression (OLS), only GWR, OLS with functional zones (OLS&FZ) and GWR with functional zones (GWR&FZ). The results showed that NTL-based GWR&FZ was the most accurate and robust approach, with an accuracy of 0.71, while the mapped population density was at a unit of 30 m spatial resolution. The detailed population density maps developed in our approach can contribute to fine-scale urban planning, healthcare and emergency responses in many parts of the world.